Move the slider to set turnout in 124 Muslim Arab localities, between their 2022 level and their actual 2026 level. Each locality keeps its own 2026 party split. All other votes stay as counted, and seats are recalculated with the 3.25% threshold and the signed surplus-vote agreements.
All party votes are from 2026; the 2022 results are used only for turnout, so no 2022 list is matched to a 2026 list. Seats show actual → adjusted. Lists under 1% of the vote are left out of the chart; their votes still count toward the total and the threshold.
Localities. A locality counts as Muslim Arab when the CBS 2022 Census lists Muslims as its main religion, plus the Bedouin tribes and Bedouin localities that the census does not list separately. Only localities that appear in both the 2022 and 2026 results files are adjusted. Mixed cities such as Jaffa, Lod, Haifa and Acre are not included because their main religion is Jewish. Druze and Christian-majority localities are not included.
Turnout. Turnout is voters divided by eligible voters, summed over these localities, as published by the Central Elections Committee. Double-envelope votes (soldiers, diplomats, hospitals) are counted nationally and are never adjusted.
What 2022 is used for. Only each locality's 2022 eligible voters and voters, which set the slider's lower end. No 2022 party results are used, so no 2022 list is paired with a 2026 list.
Scaling. Every locality's votes are multiplied by the same factor, slider turnout ÷ actual 2026 turnout. That keeps each locality's 2026 party ratios and its share of the group's votes.
Seats. Lists below 3.25% of valid votes get no seats. The remaining 120 seats are split by the Bader-Ofer (D'Hondt) method, first among surplus-agreement pairs and then within each pair. Pairs: Yisrael Beiteinu + B'Yachad, The Democrats + Yashar!, Likud + Religious Zionism, Ra'am + Joint List, Shas + UTJ. At 100% of actual turnout this reproduces the official result exactly.
| Locality | Eligible 2026 | Turnout 2022 | Turnout 2026 | Adjusted |
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